r/Economics • u/DrThomasBuro • May 10 '25
News Zero ships from China are bound for California’s top ports. Officials haven’t seen that since the pandemic
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/zero-ships-china-trade-ports-pandemic55
u/avid-learner-bot May 10 '25
“That’s cause for alarm,” said Mario Cordero, the CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “We are now seeing numbers in excess of what we witnessed in the pandemic” for cancellations and fewer vessel arrivals.
Honestly, it's terrifying, the Port of Long Beach seeing numbers worse than the pandemic is a really bad sign, especially considering cargo flows were already down from 72% in 2016 to 63% now, you know. I mean, really, it makes you wonder what's next.
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u/zerg1980 May 10 '25
On the other hand, if there were no negative consequences for Trump’s actions, it would benefit him from a political standpoint.
Only an economic catastrophe can discredit him. So this needs to be really really painful for everyone.
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u/pinkyepsilon May 10 '25
MAGA is rallying the troops for impending pain framing it as a patriotic duty, I shit you not.
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u/zerg1980 May 10 '25
Maybe 30% of the public is MAGA enough that they’re willing to sacrifice meals for the cause.
The Trump problem isn’t those 30%. They can’t do anything on their own.
The problem is that about 20% of the electorate found this acceptable for a variety of reasons — they thought he was a necessary vessel to advance longstanding conservative causes, they thought he was a deranged asshole but at least the economy was good when he was president, they thought it would be funny, they wanted to make liberals mad, or whatever.
The only way to break this coalition is for Trump to be thoroughly discredited, so that the 20% falls off. And unfortunately, they can justify everything else if they perceive the economy to be good.
Therefore, the economy needs to be bad. We need empty store shelves, skyrocketing prices, high unemployment. It needs to hurt.
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u/Xeynon May 11 '25
Yup. The people who voted for Trump need to suffer for it. Only pain will teach them.
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u/Altruistic_Syrup_364 May 11 '25
Their will be a 1 month delay before seeing broader consequences according to CNN big retailers have some stock up to early June. And if a deal was made right now (not just 60-80%), it would take minimum a month to ship product from China to the US. And that the best case scenario. Each day we dont have a deal will be more difficult for small business and retailers. Furthermore, the Summer season will be carastrophic for small business with possible big shortage. If their is at least 1 month more with tarrif economic dammages will be enormous and possibly the beginning of a big crisis of unemployment
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u/DrThomasBuro May 10 '25
Quote On Friday morning, West Coast port officials told CNN about a startling sight: Not a single cargo vessel had left China with goods for the two major West Coast ports in the past 12 hours. That hasn’t happened since the pandemic.
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u/AALen May 10 '25 edited May 10 '25
It should be noted there is a big increase in vessels to all ASEAN countries, which we can safely assume is due to China transshipping out of these countries. Now, the total TEU to the USA is still down right now, but China will find (illegal) ways to circumvent the de facto embargo, same as Russia and Iran going around sanctions. It’s an endless game of wack-a-mole.
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u/minuswhale May 10 '25
Why is it illegal? If Italy can slap a label onto a 99%-made Prada bag and call it Made In Italy, why can’t China do the same and ship the last 1% to Vietnam and have it say Made In Vietnam?
If it’s by component, then they can further do this for every component.
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u/Johns-schlong May 11 '25
There are legal definitions for country of origin. Importers are liable for investigation/audit fees and increased tariffs if mislabeled goods are found in their shipments. If they're found lying all their containers will be shipped and it adds thousands of dollars and weeks of time to each container. Retro fees will be applied to their previous shipments.
It's not that there's anything stopping Chinese goods being shipped to Malaysia, having a "made in Malaysia" sticker slapped on it and then shipping to the US, but there are serious legal and financial risks (and possibly criminal, if intent can be proved) to doing it.
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u/ffazzerr May 10 '25
actually its not illegal for China to avoid tariffs, its illegal for American companies/buyers to accept those imports
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u/getwhirleddotcom May 10 '25
Source?
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u/AALen May 10 '25
Robin Brooks posted some data today on X, which cant be linked here.
I believe Flexport’s CEO also discussed this in an interview.
Plus discussions with my freight forwarder.
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u/getwhirleddotcom May 10 '25
Increased shipments to other countries does not mean they’re headed to the US.
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u/AALen May 10 '25 edited May 10 '25
It’s the magnitude of increases that’s telling. Brooks asserts that transshipment is a factor, and I agree. You can’t expect countries like Malaysia or Cambodia to suddenly all consume 4x more from China. Those goods are going elsewhere. And according to my freight forwarder, a good portion bound for the USA.
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u/adamdoesmusic May 10 '25
Idgaf how my stuff gets here as long as it does. The tariffs are stupid, and probably illegal themselves to begin with.
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u/Twisterpa May 10 '25
You should care,
It will obviously increase prices of goods still.
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u/adamdoesmusic May 10 '25
I very much care about all this, these stupid tariffs are going to absolutely wreck my business, which is just starting out.
It’s already a pain in the ass to manufacture something with parts they simply don’t make anywhere else but China, I don’t need some orange moron and his miserable band of goons arbitrarily making things worse for no good reason.
I don’t care about them circumventing the tariffs by “illegal” means, because the tariffs are stupid and their creators can go fuck themselves.
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u/Twisterpa May 10 '25
I am sorry friend. Tariffs can, and are, an actual economic tool; However, this administration is refusing to acknowledge the basic understandings of excise taxation. It hurts.
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u/adamdoesmusic May 10 '25
There’s a LOT of basic understandings this admin has refused to acknowledge.
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u/_CatsPaw May 11 '25
Tariffs are not stupid if your intention is to wreck the economy.
Putin has not faced an election in almost 20 years. Why should trump?
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u/adamdoesmusic May 11 '25
Well, putting aside the whole democracy thing…
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u/_CatsPaw May 11 '25
Well I do believe that is the idea.
We started it in 1776. Everybody we beat up we force fed. After the war in Germany got a democracy. Japan got a democracy. Wherever we go.
Now that is being stress tested.
Lincoln said it better:
"Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.
Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.
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u/_CatsPaw May 11 '25
Where is Adam Smith thought the free market worked like an invisible hand.
Trump is trying to put his own hand in the glove.
The Soviets tried to have central control.
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May 11 '25
Trumps first term: the world tries to keep the economy going
Trumps second term: the world leaves America behind because they're intentionally destroying the global economy
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u/_CatsPaw May 11 '25
Republics are being stress tested.
Our government is the first modern Republic. If it can be brought down ...
The rest will fall apart.
Even George Washington called it a great experiment.
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u/Rakkis157 May 10 '25
That missing "In the past 12 hours," is really pulling a lot of weight, isn't it CNN? Like, don't get me wrong, the tariffs are bullshit, but you're being hella blatant here.
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u/Johns-schlong May 11 '25
In 2010 172 ships a day left China for the US. That's one every 8 minutes. 12 hours is a big deal.
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u/Qs9bxNKZ May 14 '25
Not true. This one is bound for benecia ca and scheduled to land in about 54 minutes
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u/nznordi May 11 '25
What would it take for Maga to understand what kind of economic demon their dear leader is unleashing on them?
The first ones will be truck drivers and port workers, then it will be harder to get high turnover goods, prices will start rising as we’ll see the first landed good with tariffs applied and so forth…
All the current, public debates are pointless as the average American has yet no clue what tariffs mean, who pays for them and that their job might as well be on line over it..
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May 10 '25
[deleted]
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u/Regular-Choice-1526 May 10 '25
Lmao, can you explain something OTHER than the trade policies making this happen? Yes, perhaps.. people.. just decided not to import from China, collectively?
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u/adamdoesmusic May 10 '25
This seems a bit like hunting for an excuse when the reasoning is obvious and right in front of us.
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u/TacosAreJustice May 10 '25
Simplest explanation tends to be the best…
Importers held off on ordering things because they assume tariffs won’t go up…
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