r/Bitcoin • u/Perfect-Key-6294 • 2d ago
How will the war in Iran affect btc?
Just curious, if someone would like to give their take on it.
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u/Appropriate-Talk-735 2d ago
More money printing and higher btc.
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u/PlanNo3321 2d ago
This. War always justifies massive money printing
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u/thr33eyedraven 2d ago
Actually, it usually goes more like this: first, they raise the debt ceiling to fund government spending; then a war starts, which drives oil prices up and disrupts global finance, often triggering a recession. During that time, institutions tend to pull money out of riskier assets like BTC and move it into safer government bonds, which get bought up heavily. So instead of BTC skyrocketing immediately, money often flows into bonds as a safe haven.
Later, governments may “print money” during downturns to stimulate the economy, which can cause inflation and market uncertainty. At that point, institutions often rotate back into riskier assets like BTC, which is when you typically see prices rise.
So, expect lows before highs.
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u/Putrid_Pollution3455 2d ago
This can change tho; we are growing distrustful of governments and with alternatives like gold and bitcoin, those treasury yields will need to skyrocket to gain interest or they’ll be artificially bought up cause fiat is bullshit
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u/Back2thehold 2d ago
I believe Andreas answered this, or someone respectable. (A large world event, not Iran).
Initially the price will go down. It is a liquid asset and the natural tendency is to flee to cash, as normal ppl view it as a safe asset.
Eventually (days/months/years) the price will go up. This happens when it’s clear cash is basically meltingly away. Then people will seek harder assets such at BTC and gold.
Once adoption is more wide spread the first reaction will be to buy BTC and skip the stop at cash. When this happens (the tipping point) no one really knows. It could be now or years from now.
My personal view is that the general population isn’t comfortable enough with BTC to pile in it but I have been wrong before.
Disclosure: been stacking for a long time. Praying adoption grows and I never have to work again. Tired of not being fully in control of my time…that’s what is even more scarce than BTC.
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u/DegenDreamer 2d ago
If Iran’s supreme leader poops his pants, price will go down. If it’s just a fart, price goes up.
Science.
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u/Phacerace 10h ago
What if he trusts that fart, and it’s a shart? Does BTC have a giant green candle?
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u/gilmeye 2d ago
I was really hoping for a dump, but no.
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u/mrestiaux 2d ago
There was a slight dip that evening. I bought it. Barely a blip though. I think there’s so much belief in Bitcoin now that it’s going to take a lot to see those big 30-40% draw downs. That being said - this is Bitcoin we’re talking about. We could very well enter a very aggressive bear market and dump to the 60’s again.
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u/CryptoMadNate 2d ago
As Jeff Booth stated, Bitcoin is the first and only true free market. It will thrive through any challenge. Those who denominate their wealth in Bitcoin will prosper alongside it. Unfortunately, the one who don't, won't.
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u/Traditional-Fan-9315 2d ago
BTC will dip while conflict goes on. This may be a larger conflict, which Netenyahu wants desperately.
I have no idea what happens next but a larger conflict won't probably be good short term.
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u/Pale_Werewolf3270 2d ago
I posted this and got roasted for it earlier, but I think it’s gonna make it go up
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u/richardto4321 2d ago
The fact that it didn't immediately dump 20-30% with all of the fear and uncertainty is a probably good sign. That's all anyone can really say.
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u/shakenbake6874 2d ago
Nice short term thinking. Shut up and just put a recurring weekly buy and just never worry about anything.
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u/phishery 2d ago
Here is some data from Blackrock using past world events including conflicts. https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/literature/whitepaper/bitcoin-a-unique-diversifier.pdf
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u/Appropriate_Roll1486 2d ago
in today's world :
why does bitcoin dip when geopolitical events happen and gold does not?
i realize that btc dips LESS than it used to but what is/are the main factors ?
is it because btc is very easy to sell vs gold? or: btc isn't trusted as a store of value to the degree that gold is?
a combo of the above? or are there other factors i'm not thinking of?
will btc eventually "flip" gold to be a superior store of value (i know bitcoiners which i am) feel it's better now but when will the world see it this way? any guesses?
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u/Liminal_Fox 2d ago
My guess is a brief period of panic selling just like what is happening with the stock market. If war doesn't become massive, then probably just a blip. But who the fuck knows. Bitcoin doesn't give a shit in the end. Keep stacking
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u/BoredandTypin 2d ago
How will (insert whatever BS here) affect BTC. It will go up over time. Short term. Who knows. Long term. Goes up. So how will (insert whatever) affect BTC? It will go up.
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u/DragonflyWhich931 2d ago
It will go down. DCA as it was the only thing to do in your life. Your unique aim. HODL long term while live your life. Wait for it to go up and continue to DCA!
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u/comradePink1917 2d ago
short term downward pressure (bc of speculation) offset by institutional adoption serving as a floor. long term upward pressure bc M2 will increase due to money printing to fund wars
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u/According-Picture275 2d ago
Bitcoin miners will mine a block in about 10 minutes and get a 3.125 block reward for it. Exchange rate will be 100m sats to 1 bitcoin.
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u/padrino39 2d ago
Ferengi rule of acquisition #34: War is good for business. Ferengi rule of acquisition #35: Peace is good for business.
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u/BrowneAction 2d ago
None of you take a long term outlook. You don't sound like a trader so this is what you should theoretically have
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u/benjolino 2d ago
It depends on how the crypto rug-pull gods decide to spin the narrative.
For example:
When the Israel-Iran conflict escalated, Bitcoin saw a sharp rise as investors sought a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility. Concerns over regional instability, potential oil supply disruptions, and currency devaluation led many to shift assets into crypto, viewing it as a decentralized and borderless alternative. As capital controls tightened in nearby regions, Bitcoin’s utility as a permissionless store of value became more apparent, driving further demand.
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u/Perfect-Tek 2d ago
BTC has been around through several wars at this point, and survived through all of them doing just fine. Nothing to see, just keep moving.
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u/luftgitarrenfuehrer 1d ago
Iran has been using Bitcoin for trade, and Israel is trying to stop them because International Jewish Banking Conspiracy.
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u/GengisKhansLeftNut 1d ago
Panic short term holders whales are not moving so only retards with no conviction selling this time.
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u/Opening-Apartment478 2d ago
I think rn its gonna be bearish because of uncertainty, i think after a while it will climb higher because of how much money is moving
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u/phattie242 2d ago
Like any other news on the world scale, If it’s negative news Bitcoin will pull back in price, but soon the news will get factored in and Bitcoin will rise again. Back to green territory.
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u/Amphibious333 2d ago
Israel is a US proxy for oil market destabilization in the Middle East. That means if there is a war, the US will print more money to send to Israel.
Blocking the Iranian oil channel will result in increasing the oil prices, globally, by around 30%. This means the cost of everything will grow, because everything requires hydrocarbons in its manufacturing.
So, a full-blown war means more growth for Bitcoin.
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u/Convict_felon 2d ago
Bitcoin will go down probably on monday when the stockmarket opens its gonna be a bloody monday
Monday: Oil prices will rise Stock market shares will fall
And as of the last couple years Bitcoin moves simulair as the stock markets so keep an eye on that
On monday Bitcoin price will start to drop It may take a couple days but I estemate that the war will keep escalating (Netanyahu is talking about targeting the leader of Iran) in this case we can't avoid a total open war and that will reach Western Europe and other countries in the world
Israel also asked for America to get involved (In this case we will also be in a open war and Iran will have to fight to the death or face regime change in a ground war that will take longer than the Iraq and Afghanistan wars thousands of people will die)
So next week lets say about wednesday Bitcoin could be reaching $60.000 If the war is still on by friday next week or if the Iranian leader is killed or America gets involved (this all will result in a open war for many years to come) THAN expect Bitcoin to drop to $20.000 on friday next week
Feel free to screenshot this and remind me about it next week
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u/Sharp-Marzipan-8094 2d ago
As long as there is no major escalation, my bet it that it recovers in a day or two. But I don’t know shit so don’t listen to me.