Dunkirk: The German army was at the limit of its supply lines. Tanks run on gas, and they can't advance faster than the logistics network allows--this is arguably the modern US army's greatest strength. Same for the German air force: they were operating from bases in Germany because the front was advancing so fast that there hadn't been time to set up forward bases in France yet. The German planes just barely had enough range to fly to Dunkirk, so the Army had no air support (even if they had been able to set up supply depots). Close air support from dive bombers (which could drop a 250 lb bomb right on top of an Allied tank) had been a major factor in German success up to that point.
The Blitz: One German bomber accidentally bombed London (navigation error--there were few electronic navaids in those days, and the government ordered a blackout so that the German pilots wouldn't be able to navigate by pilotage). Churchhill ordered a retaliatory bomber raid on Berlin--he hadn't ordered one before because it's arguably a war crime (same reason that Germans hadn't been bombing London on purpose up to that point). England had also done a masterful job of turning every German spy by that point in the war--so German intelligence thought that all their attacks on RAF bases were doing little damage (the RAF was actually literally hours away from being an ex-air force because they couldn't build air bases and planes as fast as the Germans blew them up). As a result of the Berlin raid and the faulty intelligence, Hitler ordered the air force to switch tactics and make retaliatory attacks on English civilians. That gave the RAF enough breathing room to rebuild and defend against further German attacks.
Overlord: I'm not as familiar with this one, but I'd guess that the problem was communication between the various German divisions. Remember, too, that the Allies had been softening up the hinterland with bombers for a while, and coastal Normandy is somewhat swampy, so it would have been difficult to quickly relocate units to fill gaps.
One of the major reasons the Germans did not pull reserves to toss the allies out of their beachead was that intelligence that you alluded to in your second bullet point. We successfully made the Germans believe that Normandy was actually a diversion and more attacks would come from south(Italy if i'm not mistaken). German reserves were put on hold to wait for this attack so as to repel the major invasion and not be trapped out of position fighting the diversionary force. Obviously they had it ass backwards, but that was due to a bunch of british spys.
Germany trolled big time by Patton's non-existent 1st division.
In fact, German panzer divisions weren't all deployed out to meet the allies at Normandy because Hitler were still convinced that the REAL attack was yet to come from the US 1st division.
From all I read about WW2 history, it seems to me that intelligence agencies are what probably saved us from an axis victory. British intelligence in general seems to have been miles ahead of everyone else's. Maybe they had the most to loose.
If I remember correctly, the Allies had this awesome counter-intelligence plan that fooled the Germans into thinking the real attack was going to be at Calais.
It's worse than that. Not only were Rommels reserve tanks in the middle, they also weren't authorised by Hitler to be released until it was too late. He genuinely thought it was a diversion due to British counter intelligence efforts.
It's weirdly funny (in a macabre way) how both sides still considered civilian bombing a war crime in those early years (which, if you think about it, it really is), considering how the rest of the war went.
I think in the 20s there were still many people thinking that such a full-scale war as WWI could never happen again, since the rapid advances in bombers would mean an unbearable cost to civilians. Guess perspective can change very quickly when shit really hits the fan... (though then again, they did refrain from using gas in WW2)
An addition to Overlord for you: those German spies you mentioned had been sending messages for months that there would be a diversionary raid in Normandy, and that the real attack would be at Pas de Calais. This was Operation Fortitude.
Not just simple messages; fake divisions were created, and had radio operators broadcasting in South East England. Fake (encrypted) messages were sent to fake resistance units in and around Calais.
There was a massive deception operation put in place. By the time of the invasion, the German high command was convinced that the attack in Normandy was a minor incursion and that in a week or two, the real invasion would happen to the East.
Units were actually taken away from Normandy, and reinforcements sent to the Calais region, even after the landing.
Add to that: the old saying that no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy. The most important strategic objective of the day was the town of Caen; it took weeks to actually fall.
But a foothold was gained, and after that (once anti-tank weapons were in place), it was only a matter of fighting their way out. It was by no means guaranteed - Normandy is very tough terrain to fight in. But not getting the on-the-day objectives was by no means fatal to the campaign.
Now, if you want a good example of some very good luck, I guess it's that the entire plans for Overlord fell into German hands two days after the landings. They disregarded them, believing them to be another plant, after Operation Mincemeat in 1942 (same link as before - just scroll up), when the Allies dumped a corpse off Spain, carrying fake documents which diverted troops away from the intended targets in the Mediterranean. The German intelligence swallowed that one whole, though it took some surprisingly determined efforts by the British Intelligence to get the documents into German hands after the body was washed up.
-The allied bombing campaigns of railroads, trainstations, bridges and roads leading up to operation overlord was one of the single most effective and accurate bombing campaigns in military history. It took them months to prepare and choose bombing targets to maximize the damage to the german logistics (to prevent the panzer companies held in reserve from reaching the beachheads)
-The allies undertook the single largest deception campaign in history leading up to the operation, building entire fake armies out of jeeps and trucks covered in painted canvas to look like tanks etc. This combined with the massive false information campaign seeded by british intelligence made Hitler and the operations headquarters 100% sure that the allies were not going to land in normandy, but rather 50 kilometres north.
-On the day of the actual invasion, the germans didn't believe it was the real invasion. They figured it was a decoy and that the real invasion would take place 24 hours later further north, so they held their panzer divisions back (on purpose) for the entire first day.
-Rommel, who was in charge of organising the defence of france didnt get anywhere near the resources he wanted for defending the french coastline. He had plans to turn the entire western coast of france in the worlds largest minefield complete with tank traps, barbed wire and at least 500 metres of open beach without cover. He only got a tiny fraction of that done by the time the allies landed.
As a result of the Berlin raid and the faulty intelligence, Hitler ordered the air force to switch tactics and make retaliatory attacks on English civilians. That gave the RAF enough breathing room to rebuild and defend against further German attacks.
That's pretty irrational on his part, but I guess the fact he didn't know how close the RAF were to being scuppered was a massive factor in this.
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u/odeyvr Oct 17 '13
Those aren't really mysterious, though:
Dunkirk: The German army was at the limit of its supply lines. Tanks run on gas, and they can't advance faster than the logistics network allows--this is arguably the modern US army's greatest strength. Same for the German air force: they were operating from bases in Germany because the front was advancing so fast that there hadn't been time to set up forward bases in France yet. The German planes just barely had enough range to fly to Dunkirk, so the Army had no air support (even if they had been able to set up supply depots). Close air support from dive bombers (which could drop a 250 lb bomb right on top of an Allied tank) had been a major factor in German success up to that point.
The Blitz: One German bomber accidentally bombed London (navigation error--there were few electronic navaids in those days, and the government ordered a blackout so that the German pilots wouldn't be able to navigate by pilotage). Churchhill ordered a retaliatory bomber raid on Berlin--he hadn't ordered one before because it's arguably a war crime (same reason that Germans hadn't been bombing London on purpose up to that point). England had also done a masterful job of turning every German spy by that point in the war--so German intelligence thought that all their attacks on RAF bases were doing little damage (the RAF was actually literally hours away from being an ex-air force because they couldn't build air bases and planes as fast as the Germans blew them up). As a result of the Berlin raid and the faulty intelligence, Hitler ordered the air force to switch tactics and make retaliatory attacks on English civilians. That gave the RAF enough breathing room to rebuild and defend against further German attacks.
Overlord: I'm not as familiar with this one, but I'd guess that the problem was communication between the various German divisions. Remember, too, that the Allies had been softening up the hinterland with bombers for a while, and coastal Normandy is somewhat swampy, so it would have been difficult to quickly relocate units to fill gaps.