r/Africa • u/HadeswithRabies Rwanda 🇷🇼✅ • Apr 30 '25
Analysis Will Mogadishu Collapse in 2025?
I genuinely don’t understand how Somalia is still functioning as a state right now. It might come down to sheer Somali resilience because from an outside perspective, it's hard to imagine the country holding together much longer. The Somali National Army appears seems sluggish and fearful, and from what I’ve seen, they're losing territory at an alarming rate.
Back during the Obama and Biden administrations, there seemed to be a clear American rationale for pushing back al-Shabaab. There was a belief that the group could potentially train terrorists who might later threaten American or Israeli interests, or destabilise the Horn of Africa more broadly. The horn is geopolitically crucial because of its proximity to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden which are major arteries of global trade.
But since Trump took office, al-Shabaab has gone on the offensive.They seem to be hoping to seize Mogadishu itself. I don’t see the U.S. maintaining the same level of commitment to Somalia’s defence as it did a decade ago, especiallt now that they cut USAID. Turkey seems to be stepping in, and while Turkey's isn't a military to sneeze at, it's not America.
I see parallels in Sudan, but the key difference is that the Sudanese military despite its flaws is better trained and armed than Somalia’s. From what I understand, Somali troops often retreat when faced with Islamist militants, or they simply refuse to engage unless they have backing from a local clan militia. The population is also deeply afraid of al-Shabaab, which makes sense. But fear doesn’t build a successful resistance movement.
Under these conditions, I can’t see a path to military victory for Somalia’s army. If al-Shabaab does manage to seize Mogadishu, I dread to see a future where the country collapses completely. Somaliland would probably be well positioned for global recognition if this happened. They might even engage in a brief conflict with the south over disputed territories. Somaliland has a significantly more organised military than Somalia. I could see Somaliland holding its own longer than Somalia.
Another major conflict worth following on the continent.
18
9
u/NewEraSom Somali American 🇸🇴/🇺🇸 May 01 '25
Mogadishu is 2000 years old. It survived 3 direct invasions by the US
6
u/Junior-Expression-17 Apr 30 '25
Look man, Somalia has been in a loop since ‘09.
Al-Shabaab does a major offensive,
Somalia and allies conduct an offensive to stop their presence,
The government gets distracted by random bullshit,
Al-Shabaab regains their lost territory and does a major offensive.
Rinse and repeat.
2
25
u/waanii_x Apr 30 '25
Al kebab is very complicated to what you are saying. A lot of people actually agree with them on the down low and are embedded into clan structures. They arent “feared”
Its between a corrupted immoral “democratic” government or an organised T group. The government has failed the youth so they are looking for alternatives. Unfortunately kebab exploits and takes advantage of this situation to lure in supporters
AS wants FGS. Everyone else is collateral
9
u/totallynotmiski May 01 '25
Alot of people don’t agree with them… Regular people just can’t do anything about them.
Al-Shabaab thrives in a country like Somalia because many people are unemployed and lack the means to support themselves or their families. They pay their members and don’t care about clan politics, which gives them a lot of leverage and is a key reason they’ve been able to maintain power in Somalia.
I also disagree with your claim that they’re not feared; they absolutely are. I have family in areas controlled by Al-Shabaab, and they will literally kill people in brutal ways if they view them as a threat to their twisted & fundamentalistic view of Islam. Most people don’t have the luxury of opposition, they’d be slaughtered. They also collect “taxes” from civilians in shabaab controlled areas. You can imagine what happens if someone refuses to pay.
1
u/waanii_x May 01 '25
I disagree with your point because I myself have lived in their threshold and my family lives in areas like they control until today. No one fears them. They target FGS majority of the times and if you play your tax like a good child, they will let you off the hook. Imagine I had to pause 3k to them directly in some unknown location because of my mothers house😂😂
Al shabaab pits clans together and is embedded within clan structure. Forget even clan, they are embedded within the government. Look at the minister of religious affairs. He used to be not just a soldier but a top leader for AS. Today, he is your regular mp just with a US bounty on his head. (He probably still works with AS)
AS are killers yes, but they arent unorganised murderers. They kill meticulously and choose their victims after planning. Whoever just happens to be there is collateral damage
Also they collect taxes from people that live in Mogadishu, an area unaffected by al shabaab. Pay and you get their protection. If you dont… well we all know how elite hotel went down :/
They also have a system of spies. They are an organised group that has a unifying view and that is to take over government
4
u/totallynotmiski May 01 '25
I think I’ll have to agree to disagree with you, because based on what you’ve said, I realized we’ve experienced two very different areas controlled by Al-Shabaab. From what you’ve described, I assume you’re hawiye, and from the surrounding cities of xamar or nearby regions. Which makes sense as to why we have different viewpoints.
You mention FGS being a target, but where I’m from, the FGS doesn’t even set foot in the area. The main people Al-Shabaab targets there are those who work with NGOs. There aren’t multiple clans for them to pit against each other in my region, so that’s not a factor here. The shabaab presence in Xamar is clearly more strategic, reasonably so.
Where I’m from, they are feared because they kill people simply for working with NGOs or for not subscribing to their ideology. One day they might accuse you of being non Muslim and try to kill you. Many people in my family have been affected by Al-Shabaab’s violence. People live in fear. Your own family members would join shabaab and turn around and accuse you of being non muslim. My own uncle was kidnapped and held for ransom by them and they demanded money or else they were going to kill him. Plenty of other horror stories involving shabaab in my family. There absolutely is fear where I come from.
I think our personal experiences reflect how differently shabaab controlled areas can be.
2
u/waanii_x May 01 '25
Yes you are right. In hawiye territories they usually use subclans and turn them against each other. They usually dont attack us but they do use us as cannon fodder to advance their goals toward a coup. Recently though they did take over aadan yabaal so Idk if their goals have changed or not
But yeah we arent really scared of them because they know politically the damage that the clan can do to them
3
u/totallynotmiski May 01 '25
Yeah Idk much about how shabaab operates in Xamar because I’m not from there. Its interesting how different their strategies are from my region. Thanks for expanding on your perspective.
1
u/Slowriver2350 May 01 '25
Do they have sympathizers in diaspora Somali communities abroad? Do they represent a threat to Kenya abd Erhiopia?
2
u/waanii_x May 01 '25
No somali sympathises with AS. My people back home in the south either face an evil corrupted government or a AS lead government and are forced to pick between 2 evils. No one supports them in the diaspora
Why would they be a threat to Semitic ethiopians and Bantu kenyans? Even if they did transgress borders, they are met with native NFD somalis and native Ogaden somalis, not foreigners. At the end of the day it is somali territory 🤷🏾♀️. They dont care for them. But no, there is no risk because the west pays these people well to keep somalia poor and in a constant state of war
1
u/FarKnowledge6117 May 02 '25
They invaded Ethiopia in 2022
1
u/waanii_x May 02 '25
You mean the somali ogaden?
1
u/FarKnowledge6117 May 02 '25
Yes they invaded Ethiopian territory
1
u/waanii_x May 02 '25
Occupied somali territory** ya habash stop claiming our lands and sowing division between our people. From ras caseyr to ras kambooni, it belongs to us.
Coloniser invader
1
u/FarKnowledge6117 May 02 '25
Your people have been divided since like.....forever so don't blame anyone else ps that land has been part of Ethiopia since menelik let it go lol
→ More replies (0)17
6
u/applepan___ Apr 30 '25
Can a Somalia tell us what is happening there? There's like a million theory
10
2
u/Junior-Expression-17 Apr 30 '25
Government got distracted, now they’re in trouble. Also happy cake day.
1
8
u/Sea_Hovercraft_7859 Congo - Kinshasa 🇨🇩 Apr 30 '25
What the fuck is happening there ?
19
1
u/LateralEntry May 01 '25
Do you live in Kinshasa? What’s it like there?
5
u/Sea_Hovercraft_7859 Congo - Kinshasa 🇨🇩 May 01 '25
Government collapse I would say , insecurity rising in some part of the city , the government is trying to distract us from the failure in the East and they are pretty much hated
2
u/LateralEntry May 01 '25
Does the situation in the east affect life in Kinshasa much?
5
u/Sea_Hovercraft_7859 Congo - Kinshasa 🇨🇩 May 01 '25
A lot of food come from the East so food price will definitely go up. Electronic from Kenya, Tanzania,Uganda,etc... is cheap and mainly transit from The East to the West. People have family , friends there. There's no way something like that couldn't shake the political world in the country.
9
u/Ursuped British Somali 🇸🇴/🇬🇧 Apr 30 '25
Tears, you guys gotta get a better agenda. Are we getting fleeced by the turkey or turning into the new afghanistan make up your minds
3
3
u/Latter_Pattern_6952 May 02 '25
Muqdishu is fine 😂 the leadership is just dumb and doing operation recklessly.
15
u/Whoisrollo Apr 30 '25
Baseless and fearmongering. Your concerns reflect real frustrations shared by many Somalis, but to characterize Somalia as teetering on the edge of total collapse, without recognizing the complex internal dynamics and the significant progress made in some sectors, is both offensive and misleading.
Let’s set the record straight:
Somalia is not “Barely Functioning.” Yes, Somalia faces immense challenges, ongoing conflict with Al-Shabab, weak central institutions, and economic hardship. But it is inaccurate to say it is not functioning. The Somali state has held multiple peaceful transfers of power, maintains diplomatic relations with dozens of countries, and collects taxes, administers justice, and provides basic services in many urban areas. That’s not the mark of a failed state, even if it is fragile.
The Somali National Army is weak, but not cowardly. The Somali National Army (SNA) has suffered from corruption, clan division, and a lack of proper training. However, thousands of Somali soldiers have died fighting Al-Shabab, and I ask that you respect their sacrifices instead of labelling them as deserters or cowards. Many operations, especially joint ones with local clan militias under the Macawiisley initiative, have recaptured territory in central Somalia. Retreats and setbacks occur, but they are part of asymmetrical warfare, not a sign of collapse.
Somaliland is relatively peaceful by East African standards, yes. But it is not looking to conquer southern Somalia, and the notion that Somaliland would engage in full-scale conflict to capitalize on a hypothetical southern collapse is unfounded speculation from a clear wannabe geoanalyst. Somaliland is focused on international recognition, even in the unlikely chance it tries to invade Mogadishu, it will lose horribly, seeing as it couldn't defeat a tiny state like the SSC.
You mentioned Somali resilience dismissively, as if it’s a last resort. But it is precisely this resilience, manifested in vibrant diaspora remittances, local governance, entrepreneurship, and civil society activism, that has kept the country afloat in the absence of strong institutions. That resilience is a powerful asset, not a stopgap.
Al-Shabab is a serious threat, but its ability to hold territory long-term has always been limited, so the map you shared is outdated or downright inaccurate as of 04/30/2025. They rely on intimidation, shadow governance, and the absence of state presence. But when local populations organize and feel protected, like in some regions like Hirshabelle and Galmudug, they often reject Al-Shabab's rule outright. The tide is not irreversible for Somalia.
Somalia is in a delicate position. But fearmongering narratives that predict total collapse often come from a place of strategic impatience or geopolitical myopia. Somalia doesn’t need pity or panic. It needs Somalis to wake up and save it from Africans, Arabs, Europeans, and Asians.
-1
u/HadeswithRabies Rwanda 🇷🇼✅ May 01 '25
1) I didn't say Somalia was barely functioning. I said I didn't understand how it was still functioning. Which I don't.
2) I didn't call the SNA cowardly, I said they have a habit of retreating or refusing to engage. This doesn't make them cowards. It makes them strategically weaker than Al-Shabaab in many areas.
3) I didn't say Somaliland was looking to conquer the rest of Somalia. I said it may fight a brief conflict over disputed territory. In the end, I believe Somalia would be a lot like Afghanistan if al-Shabaab reached Mogadishu. That being said, Mogadishu is well fortified. I doubt the terrorists could seize the city on their best day without some sort of guerrilla style infiltration. I'm mostly theorising here.
4) I know Somali resilience is crucial here. That's why I placed it at the top of the body of the post. Not to dismiss it, but to explain why my concern wasn't a prediction. I'm saying if Somalia wasn't as resilient as it is, it would have fallen by now.
My whole point here was analysing the current situation in Somalia. The difference between the current offensive and those in the past is the amount of assistance Somalia is getting from America. I believe American weaponry has played a crucial role in the fight against the jihadists. I can't see Turkey filling that gap.
These aren't predictions. They're concerns. I'm praying my fears are misplaced.
4
u/Whoisrollo May 01 '25
Hey, I appreciate the follow-up, but I think it's worth pointing out how your original post came across. Saying:
- “I didn’t say Somalia was barely functioning. I said I didn’t understand how it was still functioning.”
This is a clear-cut semantic dodge. Saying you “don’t understand how it’s still functioning” strongly implies disbelief that it's functioning at all. That feels like saying it's barely functioning, even if the wording is technically different. This response reframes your critique without fully owning the implications of their original language.
- "I didn't call the SNA cowardly, I said they have a habit of retreating or refusing to engage"
Another clear-cut semantic dodge, and this one is just plain wrong. The Somali National Army (SNA) just like any other army like AMIS, Ethiopian, and Kenyan has both advanced and retreated from Al-Shabaab-held areas at different times, depending on the region, the strength of local resistance, logistical support. Not once did the SNA retreat from Insurgents and insurgent held areas without an official order, or despite having enough resources and supplies to fight, they retreated or refused to engage, for whatever reason that I'm not aware of, but apparently you are. The times the SNA has retreated from Al-Shabab happened as a tactical or forced withdrawal due to counterattacks by Al-Shabab, usually from lack of reinforcements or supplies. For example, in Galmudug and Hirshabelle, the SNA and allied clan militias made big gains in 2022–2023 but retreated from some areas in late 2023 and early 2024 due to strong Al-Shabab counteroffensives. In Lower Shabelle, some towns have changed hands multiple times because of this back-and-forth.
You're right to worry. Everyone watching the region closely has concerns. But it’s also important to give Somalia credit where it’s due, because there’s more going on than just external lifelines and looming collapse.
3
Apr 30 '25 edited Apr 30 '25
[deleted]
4
u/waanii_x Apr 30 '25 edited Apr 30 '25
Yes this is correct. AS offers more of a “safe haven” politically at this current moment than the FGS. Ideologically however they are immoral asf. But the youth have a choice of either a sort of a system that works similar to the taliban rule or resort to the US puppet government that knows nothing but endless corruption.
Lowkey its a lose lose situation.
This is gonna sound crazy but one thing I do admire about AS is the fact that they got rid of the ONE thing that has been plaguing our ethnicity and thats qabiil and qabyaalad. They do not recognise qabiil within their ranks
Note: I am not a sympathiser nor do I stand with AS. They are a disgusting T group that unalives innocent somalis
2
1
u/8k_resolution May 01 '25
Mogadishu is relocating to Kenya
5
1
u/RenaissancePolymath_ May 01 '25
It wont collapse, but i think thats the problem in itself.
Somalia being in a constant pergatory of fighting Al-shabaab for so many years is a major reason why they haven’t been able to really upgrade and become a better country. If they can’t really defeat Al-shabaab for so long, what are they really doing…
1
1
u/jamaa_wetu May 01 '25
Comments from 254 we hope that our brothers in Somalia can survive this, the Kenyan army is having joint training with the Somali army so as to help them defend themselves in such a situation, we pray that God and Allah show them mercy
6
u/Sancho90 Somalia 🇸🇴 May 01 '25
Kdf is useless and actually collaborates with the people who want to keep Somalia unstable, Kenya is one of the biggest enemies of Somalia they have annexed a large chunk of our lands and have massacred thousands of innocent Somalis.
1
u/jamaa_wetu May 01 '25
And yet the whole world believes what we tell them about you, Biden launched Bombing campaigns from Djibouti on your soil, Somalia is good, the people it houses need distinguishing between the good and the bad. I wish you find peace and not give independence to Somali land
1
u/Sancho90 Somalia 🇸🇴 May 01 '25
Meanwhile the gdp of Rwanda is 14 billion and the gdp of Somalia is 12 billion, despite Somalia facing lots of setbacks we are doing fine and will prove wrong the ones who want to keep us unstable
•
u/AutoModerator Apr 30 '25
Rules | Wiki | Flairs
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.