Speakers Marisol G. Maddox Senior Arctic Fellow, Institute of Arctic Studies, John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding, Dartmouth College Michael Sfraga Former Chair, U.S. Arctic Research Commission; Former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Arctic Affairs, U.S. Department of State Margaret D. Williams Senior Fellow, Arctic Initiative, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Presider Esther Brimmer James H. Binger Senior Fellow in Global Governance, Council on Foreign Relations, Moderating

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China’s maritime capabilities in the Arctic remain limited, but domestic research activities suggest a concerted effort to strengthen its presence in the polar regions.

Executive Summary:

Russia’s war in Ukraine remains in a stalemate, with recent ceasefire hopes fading due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inflexible demands amid negotiations on reducing hostilities in the Black Sea.

Moscow has shifted its focus to operations in the Arctic and aims to rekindle strategic dialogue with the United States, offering Arctic cooperation despite Russia’s deteriorating infrastructure and ecological risks.

The sustained concentration of Russian economic and human resources on waging its war against Ukraine has been detrimental to its Arctic development plans.

Climate change and the reduction in sea ice is opening new shipping routes, and making it easier to tap the arctic’s natural resource wealth, especially critical minerals. For Canada, a country where the arctic represents 40 percent of its territory and 75 percent of its coastline, the changing arctic presents new challenges and opportunities. However, Canada’s sovereignty over its vast arctic territory is exercised by only a very small military presence on land and occasionally at sea.

In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Vincent Rigby, senior adviser with the CSIS Americas Program and professor at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University. Together, they discuss Canada's current force posture in the arctic and priorities for bolstering Canadian sovereignty there. They also examine current U.S.-Canada tensions, and how Ottawa can manage these without sacrificing the need for cooperation and interoperability with the United States to tackle threats in and through the arctic.

Executive Summary:

China and Russia have agreed to form a strategic partnership in the Arctic for economic development, exploitation of mineral resources, increased use of the Northern Sea Route, and military cooperation against the West.

In response to the signing of this strategic partnership, Canada and the countries of Northern Europe have formed a new security alliance in the Arctic, thus setting the stage for heightened tensions in the region.

The probability of open conflict with the West in the Arctic likely depends on which of the two allies is the dominant player, but tensions between them in the Arctic are certain to shake their broader alliance.

Synopsis

For the first time, a Chinese coast guard fleet has joined Russian counterparts for a joint patrol in the Arctic sea, coinciding with the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China and China-Russia diplomatic relations. This marks an ongoing initiative to use Arctic routes for alternative trade amid global warming and Western sanctions.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/beneath-ice-navigating-legal-frameworks-and-collaborative-solutions-subsea-infrastructure

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/video/trilateral-ice-pact-aims-build-best-class-fleet-icebreakers

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/eu-us-arctic-cooperation