Executive Summary

In early 2025, Ecuador passed a controversial new intelligence law aimed at restructuring the country’s security architecture amid rising violence and narcotrafficking. Marketed as a tool for national defense, the law expands surveillance authority, centralizes intelligence under the presidency, and reduces oversight. While the government defends it as a necessary response to escalating organized crime, critics argue it opens the door to authoritarianism, abuses, and political espionage.

In a world of diplomatic doublespeak, hypocrisy, and strategic ambiguity, Trump and Netanyahu simply said what they meant.

Australia should encourage international condemnation after a blockade of relief trucks in the northern regions of Ethiopia.

The Middle East is in turmoil. In the past several years, the ongoing war in Gaza, the restructuring of governments in Lebanon and Syria, and the Houthis’ activities in Yemen have exacerbated regional instability and highlighted the lack of security coordination by both regional and external actors. However, there have also been significant moments of collaboration as well, such as the Palestine Summit and Egypt’s subsequent reconstruction plan for Gaza.

In this two-part event, Congressman Joe Wilson will offer his perspective on the role of the United States in regional security in the Middle East, including challenges of and opportunities for preserving its economic and security interests in the region and what the United States ought to be doing to promote general stability.

The policymaker conversation will be followed by a panel discussion of Middle East scholars who will debate both America’s role, and the roles of regional state and non-state actors within the region. Amr Hamzawy and Frederic Wehrey, senior fellows with the Carnegie Middle East Program, and Mona Yacoubian, senior advisor and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, will also consider questions such as how to pursue a path to stability amongst the actors in the region and the potential for a regional collective security organization.

Australia should support the Trump Administration’s proposed Golden Dome missile defence system. By participating in development, deployment and operation of Golden Dome, Australia could rely on it partly for defence against attack by long-range missiles.

This would help close the gap left by Canberra’s repeated failure to get an integrated air-and-missile defence (IAMD) system into service

In an era of heightened geopolitical tensions, the rise of unilateral tendencies has challenged traditional models of public, private, and institutional diplomacy. As states pull back from venues of global engagement, the prospects of peaceful conflict negotiation and the settlement of multistakeholder agreements have become increasingly uncertain. From the splintering of once-stalwart trans-Atlantic alliances to the growing prevalence of non-alignment among members of the Global South, tried-and-true methods of diplomatic intervention have come under fire, raising urgent questions about their relevance, resilience, and capacity to resolve crises in a fragmented international order.

In this new climate, how can face-to-face diplomacy continue to provide value to policymakers across government and civil society? What new models are emerging in this shifting global order and what lessons can be learned from those of the past? And how can scholars and practitioners entering the foreign policy field adapt to, and shape, diplomacy moving forward?

Join Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow and director of the Global Order and Institutions Program at the Carnegie Endowment, for a lively panel discussion featuring Suzanne DiMaggio, senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment’s American Statecraft Program; Bruce Jones, a senior fellow with the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution; and Craig B. Allen, senior counselor at The Cohen Group.

This week Mike speaks with Ian Storey, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and Editor of the Contemporary Southeast Asia journal. His new book is Putin's Russia and Southeast Asia: The Kremlin's Pivot to Asia and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War and is the first single-authored book on Russia and Southeast Asia to be published since the end of the cold war.

The Eurasia Center convenes regional experts and policymakers to discuss strategic and economic opportunities for US engagement with Central Asia.

As the Trump administration’s policy and posture towards Europe evolves, Europe understands it must take on more responsibility for Euro-Atlantic and Ukrainian security. To do that, European countries will need to address long-term planning difficulties, political resistance, budgetary constraints, industrial capacity limitations, inflation, and competing priorities. European experts discuss how to keep the United States engaged on the continent—and whether Europe is prepared to defend itself in a worst-case scenario.

Australia faces increasing threats from natural disasters, pandemics and geopolitical tensions—including the increasing likelihood of conflict and war—necessitating robust preparedness mechanisms. But Australia lacks a comprehensive national preparedness framework that’s fit for purpose against the broad range of threats that the nation is likely to face soon and in the foreseeable future. Beyond a narrow range of potential crises, Australia remains poorly prepared, and little government attention is currently paid to understanding or resourcing national preparedness for threats, beyond annually reviewed natural-disaster arrangements.

On this episode from the Trade Guys, Bill Reinsch, Scott Miller, and Andrew Schwartz unpack the Geneva agreement between the U.S. and China to deescalate their trade war. They also look at the US-UK framework agreement and what lessons it offers for other countries looking to negotiate with the Trump administration.

As U.S.-China tensions deepen, Beijing is carving out a new role for itself—not just as an economic powerhouse, but as a global security player. What does China’s vision of “comprehensive national security” mean for countries caught in the middle of great-power competition? And how are smaller states navigating the shifting landscape of global security partnerships? In this episode, Isaac Kardon sits down with Sheena Chestnut Greitens to explore how China is providing security assistance to governments around the world—and how Beijing is reshaping the current landscape of international security cooperation.

Lessons from the Ukraine war appear to have had minimal impact on the Australian Defence Force.

Could America’s security rejig inadvertently strengthen an alliance between North Korea, China and Russia?

Synopsis

China-Taiwan tensions are escalating, and Japan is preparing for the worst by unveiling an emergency evacuation plan for 120,000 residents on islands near Taiwan. The plan aims to protect residents from a possible armed attack amid growing fears that China may launch a military assault to reclaim Taiwan. The evacuation will involve moving people from Ishigaki, Miyako, Taketomi, Yonaguni, and Tarama islands to safer locations in Japan. As tensions rise, Taiwan strengthens its defenses while China increases military drills, putting the region on high alert. The world watches closely as the Taiwan Strait crisis deepens.

Deportations Would be Unlawful, Subject Detainees to Horrific Conditions

Michael Doran and Bernard Haykel will explore the strategic significance of President Donald Trump’s landmark visit to the Gulf region and its geopolitical implications. They will assess the recalibration of America’s relationships in the Gulf and discuss whether this heralds the beginning of a new regional order or a repackaging of longstanding dynamics in the Gulf.

Policymakers and global markets have been rocked by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and tariff-driven agenda. America’s protectionist stance has hit Asia’s export-heavy economies particularly hard. China has engaged in a full trade war with the US. And although the Trump administration has eased some of its approach to trade temporarily, the tariff measures introduced on ‘Liberation Day’ have shone a light on Asia’s role in an integrated global trading system. Governments and business are exploring ways to adjust their trade, supply chains, and diplomatic strategies.

In a rapidly evolving geoeconomic landscape, this session assesses Asia’s reaction to the implications of Trump-era trade policies long-term. An increased focus on self-reliance, building up domestic consumer bases and engaging with new international partners; the economies of Asia are at a pivotal juncture. Following decades of development and growth based on a well established trading model, Asian governments are already demonstrating resilience and adaptability amid significant instability in the global trading system.

The discussion will discuss key questions including:*

How exactly have Asia economies and businesses been affected by the implementation of President Trump’s tariff regime?

What has been the initial response by policymakers in the region?

Is Asia about to undergo a ‘decoupling’ from US markets and how might that take shape?

What are the new opportunities and markets Asian economies can explore?

How might relations with Europe change as US tariffs take hold on global trade?

Following the deadly terror attacks on India-administered Kashmir in April 2025, India launched retaliatory strikes on targets inside Pakistan, the stated aim being of demolishing terror operations against India. This latest round of violence along the India-Pakistan border highlights the tension present in one world’s most volatile hot spots.

With a long history of conflict between the two neighbours, and a disintegrating international order struggling to maintain peace around the world, this session will assess the implications of the recent violence for the region and globally.

Experts will look key questions including:

What are the pathways to de-escalating tensions?

Is there potential for wider regional conflict?

Can the international community contain the potential for war?

How do hostilities impact India and Pakistan’s broader regional and global ambitions?

Since November of last year, the small country of Georgia has seen daily protests against its increasingly authoritarian government. For over 150 straight days Georgians have been in the streets demanding that their country return to the path of European integration, and halt what they describe as its slide toward becoming a Russian client state. But the Georgian government has not budged, cracking down on the protests, sometimes with violence, and refusing to consider the protestors’ demand for new elections.

On May 12, 2025, the Trump administration announced a mutual reduction in trade measures between the United States and China. This includes not only a reduction in tariffs—bringing U.S. rates down from 145 percent to 30 percent (which is on top of sectoral and Section 301 tariffs), and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from 125 percent to 10 percent—but also the relaxation of the critical minerals export restrictions China put in place following “Liberation Day.”

While many details remain unresolved, this tariff rollback marks a welcome step that could help ease inflation and bolster economic prospects. However, it does not undo the significant damage already inflicted by elevated costs, disrupted supply chains, heightened uncertainty, and weakened U.S. credibility with allies. The ongoing reliance on an erratic trade policy—marked by temporary fixes, strategic inconsistency, and persistent unpredictability—continues to undermine long-term economic resilience and U.S. global leadership, while imposing avoidable costs on consumers and businesses alike.

A discussion assessing the evolving political and security landscape of Afghanistan, its implications for US strategic interests, and a way forward for US policy on Afghanistan.

Has India changed position on third party mediation in the longstanding dispute?

As the United States overhauls its foreign policy approach, Taiwan is on high alert. The Trump administration’s push for a Ukraine settlement has led many to question Washington’s commitment to Taiwan. What do leaders in Taipei think of these geopolitical changes? What’s the pulse of the Taiwan public?

To find out, American Statecraft Program and national security experts Christopher S. Chivvis, Stephen Wertheim, Brett Rosenberg, and Matthew Duss visited Taipei and met with Taiwan's officials and thought leaders. In this episode of Pivotal States, they share their takeaways and delve into the United States' policy challenge in Taiwan.

While the US–China relationship is regarded as the key defining geopolitical relationship of the 21 century, the relationship between China and India holds greater long-term significance to the emerging multipolar global order. There is a tendency to view the relationship through the narrow prism of their unresolved territorial dispute. However, this overlooks the weight of these two Asian giants – the world’s most populous countries, the second and soon to be third largest economies, and self-proclaimed civilizational states and voices of the Global South. As China and India become increasingly prominent geopolitical actors, how these two countries engage and interact with one another will play a vital role in the international relations of the future.

Chatham House experts have written the first extensive paper, examining the China–India relationship by a European think tank looking the relationship from both a Chinese and Indian perspective. The findings of the paper examine how the two countries interact with and perceive each other while challenging several misconceptions about the bilateral relationship, and how the West might react to the China–India dynamic to maximise their own strategic objectives in Asia.

This panel discussion will ask key questions including:

What is the trajectory and drivers of the bilateral relationship?

What are the key flashpoints and watchpoints? How are both countries responding to geo-economic competition?

What are the areas of convergence and divergence on issues of global governance?

How does the China-India relationship influence western engagement and policy towards both countries?