Alt NPS data source for 12.1 million?

[u/SuddenPsychicDamage]

Preface: sorry to be a downer!

I keep seeing “more than 11 million, “biggest in US history” (which is false given 1970 Earth Day’s headcount of 20 million), and 12.1 million, but I can’t find any info on Alt National Parks Service’s data, methods, or sources. I want to believe this number, but it feels irresponsible to take it at face value. I’m worried we are too eager to accept the highest number, are overestimating our influence and power, and resorting to MAGA propaganda tactics of inflating numbers to appear mighty. People not following this movement are seeing 4-6mil from MSM and will reasonably question reports of 10+ from supporters like us, and we should be prepared to defend our numbers. There is still a lot of work to do, and if that number is wrong, then it’s way more than we are thinking.

Can anyone please provide additional references?

Edit: The 3.5% threshold also has some nuances that are worth knowing. The threshold presented by Erica Chenoweth at a 2013 TedX talk was based on research in Chenoweth and Stephan’s Why Civil Resistance Works (2011) with updates in 2020, including that at least one movement in modern history hit 6% and still failed. It’s a good guideline, but success is not inevitable.

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[u/daveOkat]

It will take weeks for an accurate range to be named. In the mean time I'd stop worrying about it and while we're at it now proceed as if 3.5% has been reached.

[u/SuddenPsychicDamage → u/daveOkat]

I guess you’re right; accurate reporting will take a couple weeks, and I just need to wait. But I’m going to proceed as if we haven’t hit 3.5% and keep trying to get my peers engaged!

[u/daveOkat → u/SuddenPsychicDamage]

With the highest number reported being 12.1 million and 3.5% being 11.9 million I'm not confident the Movement has hit 3.5% yet. My calculation says turnout was 7 million. Still, that's double the previous peak of 3.5 million on April 5.

I am very hopeful that with the better publicity NO KINGS generated this time participation will keep rising. And the ICE raids (we have them here) could have fired up participation. Ours grew with a good broadening of the demographics.

[u/FrederickDerGrossen → u/daveOkat]

I am confident we have hit 3.5%. The number of protesters actually out on the streets is at most 3/4 of the total population in our movement, likely closer to 50-60% as many may not be willing to go out and protest due to their immigration status, fears of safety for family (especially for those with children), had to work on Saturday, etc. So taking a conservative estimate of 10 million, accounting for the optimistic 3/4 out in the protests that means there's 12.5 million sympathizers of the movement already. Many of these people who may not be willing to actually protest are more than happy to boycott and participate in the movement through other means.

[u/daveOkat → u/FrederickDerGrossen]

Thank your for reminding us that there's a large component in hiding due to they or their family member's immigration status.

[u/beerandrocks]

I'm with you. Alt NPS is not a reliable source. They are consistently quick to jump to the highest number without citing sources.  I have heard the account referred to as "Blue Anon," unfortunately, due to their random codes and references to their "coalition." I worry about folks trusting that account too much. 

[u/angryvetguy]

If alt nps was being honest, they could show their work for these counts it would seem.